Climate variations and land use alter the hydrology of the Nabileque region, Pantanal, MS

Abstract

Climate change and human activities impact ecosystems, creating the need for solutions such as agroforestry systems (SAFs) to benefit both agriculture and conservation. However, few studies address SAFs in the Pantanal, especially using multitemporal data. This study aims to investigate how climate variations influence land use for the implementation of SAFs in the Nabileque region. We used MapBiomas images from 1985, 2005, and 2022, with analyses conducted in R software using the OpenLand package. We found a significant reduction in areas with water bodies, from 46% in 1985 to only 1% in 2022, while vegetation areas, particularly campo formations, significantly expanded. We observed an average temperature increase between 1980 and 2020, especially from the 2000s onward, and a gradual decrease in precipitation, from 260 mm in 1980 to about 150 mm in the following years. The study reveals land use changes in Nabileque, with the conversion of water bodies into campo areas, which, if not intervened, will become pasturelands, highlighting the need for sustainable practices. Agroforestry systems (SAFs) are effective in mitigating the loss of native vegetation and regenerating degraded areas. They help maintain soil moisture, control erosion, and increase resilience to water stress. Additionally, SAFs preserve biodiversity and regulate the hydrological cycle, reducing the impacts of land use changes.