Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Europe’s wine systems

Abstract

The wine sector faces major challenges in the face of climate change, so the objective of
the present study was to evaluate the potential geographical distribution of grapevine (Vitis
vinifera) crops in the time present-2050 horizon under RCP 8.5 (Representative path of concentration)
in Europe. Were used the programs MaxEnt and Idrisi GIS (geographic information
systems). The results show loss of distribution of V. vinifera to the southeast of Portugal, south
west of Italy and Greece. Persistence is observed towards the center of Europe. Increase in
the distribution of the grapevine in the northwest of Spain, increase and persistence of distribution
in central France and northwest of Germany. This is due to the increase in temperature
(3.7 °C) and the decrease in precipitation (8%). The ecological niche models determine the
impact of climate change, which implies the management and conservation of the habitat of
the grapevine.